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Proceeding of the Pan-European Sustainable Energy NGO Seminar - INFORSE-Europe September, 2001, Denmark

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International Climate Change Policy - What Next?

Climate Strategies After COP6bis. -

By Rob Bradley,
Climate Network Europe

Who is Climate Network Europe?
• We focus on climate change
• 83 European Members
• More than 300 members of the Climate Action Network (CAN)
• Necessary global perspective
• CAN a major player at Kyoto

Strategies after Climate Convention Connference in Bonn, july 2001 (COP6bis)?

• Did Bonn settle the Kyoto Protocol?
• Let’s ratify and bring it into force!
• Bringing the US on board
• Meeting those targets
• Looking to the future

What did the brilliant NGOs achieve in Bonn?

some good things …
• Political deal excluding only the US
• Kept multilateral climate policy alive
• Some key bad stuff excluded, especially nukes from the project mechanisms
• Door left open for further work on environmental standards
• Real chance of entry into force

…and some not so good
• US still needs to be brought on board
• Political deal still not in legal text form
• No formal constraint on hot air trading
• Serious risks such as CDM sinks
• Targets effectively reduced slightly

So what is to be done in Marrakech?

• Political agreement must be respected in legal texts
• The compliance regime must retain its strength
• Timetables and structures for elaborating environmental standards

Ratification and entry into force

• The Rio +10 deadline is only a year away!
• Key message is that we now have enough agreement to ratify
• Entry into force needs EU, CEE, Russia and Japan
• Australia and Canada politically important

Implementation: how do we meet these targets?

EU and CEE well placed to meet the Kyoto targets
NGOs must push voluntary restraint on loopholes, e.g. Norway
Implement Kyoto targets with an eye on the long term
Nuclear phase-out need not affect this, but geological sequestration may be proposed

Bringing the US on board

• US will not propose an alternative to Kyoto in near future
• Now has other pressing foreign policy priorities
• US very unlikely to join Kyoto later
• Need to find ways to get US adoption of equally tough domestic policies
• Perhaps link with Kyoto in second commitment period?

Looking to the long term

What is the long-term climate strategy?
• Kyoto will set the right trends – a lot more useful than it looks
• What new countries will be brought in to take targets?
• Equity, adaptation and emission rights
• Science and a step-by-step approach

Developing countries are all different

• “Advanced” developing countries: Mexico, Argentina, South Korea, etc.
• Big total emitters – India, China, Brazil
• The seriously poor – Bangladesh, sub-Saharan Africa…

Facing up to equity

• Fairness and justice must be guiding principles for long term climate policy
• What is fair? Is per-capita allocation fair to those with low renewable resources?
• Can a hypothetically ideal equity be imposed?
• How can equity be increased in Kyoto-style context?

Science and step-by step approach

• Science is still progressing – “optimal” level of emissions still unknown in detail
• It is for industrialised countries to take the main burden of reductions
• Targets can be progressively tightened
• Combine with other measures such as renewable energy targets?

Read more about Climate Network Europe's analysis and proposals