Vision2050 is similar to the vision for EU; but developed to
fit the visions of the Latvian INFORSE member Latvian Green Movement.
proposed development follows in general the same path as in the European
but given the large biomass potential, the expected continued growth
after the criris, and the need to replace
nuclear import without
increasing gas demand, the vision has a strong focus on actions that
implemented cost-effectively until 2020, and include more growth
than the vision for EU. It includes a transition of the energy
supply and demand with phase-out of fossil and nuclear energy over
a 30 - 40-year period, 2010 - 2040/2050.
If this vision is turned into reality it will have a
number of positive effects for Latvia that is fully dependant on imports
for its fossil fuel supply. With a transition to domestic energy sources,
Latvia will no longer be hurt directly by the energy prices increases
of fossil fuels that many expect will come as a result of the dwindling
resources of fossil fuels. With realisation of the vision, Latvia would
also be in the front in the reduction of climate change, a position that
can be very valuable in the future. Further, the emphasis on local resources
will also benefit the Latvian economy with increased employment and a
more positive trade balance. If Latvia is going to continue its development
and growth, it has do be efficient, not the least energy efficient.
The vision includes a phase-out of electricity imports from 2009, increased
use of renewable energy, strong emphasis on energy efficiency, and reduction
of natural gas after 2010.
Factor 4 for Energy Efficiency
In line with INFORSE’s global vision for sustainable energy, the
Latvian Vision is based on increase of energy efficiency to reach an
average level in 2050 similar to best available technologies today. A
number of studies have shown that with best available technology, on
the market or close to market introduction, it is possible to increase
energy efficiency with a factor four or more for most energy uses. Most
energy consuming equipments will be changed several times until 2050,
and if new generations of equipment are made with optimal energy performance,
and markets are made to promote the most efficient technology, it will
not be a problem to reach today's best available technology, even though
the efficiency gains achieved are very large, - in the order of 4 times,
similar to an annual increase of efficiency of over 2% per year from
2010. This will not happen by itself, given that the "natural" technological
development in EU countries has been about 1% per year. It will require
concerted actions from stakeholders involved, but if it is done on EU-scale,
and the market therefore is large for each new generation of efficient
equipment, the changes will be cost-effective. The extra equipment costs
will be off-set by energy savings. To realise this, it is, however, necessary
to go beyond the conservatism of many market players in this field, and
develop a truly enabling market for energy efficiency throughout the
society. The factor four increase of efficiency is possible in Latvian
electricity demand, except for construction and agricultural sectors
that has very little electric intensity today, for road transport and
for industrial heat and fuel demands.
The Challenge of Reducing Heat Consumption
For buildings the situation is different from equipment and vehicles
because buildings often have lifetimes of 100 years or more. Many of
the houses to be heated in 2050 are probably already built. Statistics
indicates that efficiency of heating did not improve 2000 – 2005.
On the other hand, the need for large replacement or major renovation
of block houses build during the Soviet Union gives an opportunity for
large increases in efficiency, if appropriate standards and support is
in place. For Latvia, the proposed energy conservation targets for domestic
sector should be realised as planned in 2016 and 2020 to reach final
heat demand of respectively 195 kWh/m2 and 150 kWh/m2, and similar targets
should be set for the service sector. In parallel, efforts to stop and
reverse electric heating must be introduced rapidly. After 2020, efforts
should be continued following EU regulation, leading to specific, final
heat consumption of 82 kWh/m2 in 2050, or only 36% of the level in 2000.
This is expected to be a combination of improved heating installations
in houses and improved buildings.
It is also a challenge to reverse the current trend of increasing
electric heating in Latvia for hot water and for rooms, a trend
that goes again
this visions proposal of strong energy efficiency. Electricity is
the form of energy with the highest value and the highest environmental
costs in production. It is therefore a pure waste to use electricity
The vision does not include heat pumps in Latvia as they do not have
an added value in the Latvian energy system; but heat pumps have
included in INFORSE vision for other countries with more intermittent
electricity supply (mainly windpower). In Latvia the current trend
in some places to replace wood-based heating with heat pumps goes
again this vision. Instead we propose efficient and clean use
of wood and
areas with more dense housing: extension of district heating.
For transport is assumed that the conversion-efficiency from fuel
to transport-work is increased 4 times for personal cars and
3.5 times for truck (from current 15- 20% in combustion
engine systems to above 60% with electric vehicles in combination
with a smaller fraction pof biofuels. This incldues that the
vehicles will be equipped with recoverage of break-energy, so the "end-use" of
energy in transport is limited to the unavoidable friction losses
in transport (except for aviation).
This increase is
expected to happen until 2050. Most of the changes are only expected
after 2020, and the efficiency increase 2000 – 2020 is
only expected to be about 20%.
The growth of energy services, i.e. heated floor space, transported
goods and people, energy consuming production, is expected
to continue for
2-3 decades and then level off for most sectors towards 2050.
This corresponds with historical rapid growth 2000 - 2007 and slower
development since then
The development is in general not “business as usual”;
but will require policies to redirect economic development
to less resource-demanding
sectors and solutions, such as train transport instead of
road transport for personal transport and stop of electric
growth in activities for Latvia are:
Floor space, households: increase of 15% 2000 - 2010, then 2% annual
increase from 2010, but from 2030 only 0.5%/year,
to over 40
· Floor space service sectors: 25% increase 2000 - 2010, then 2% annual
2030, and then to 0.5% per year in the following decades.
Electric appliances in households and service: 80% increase 2000-2010
following current trends, then 1%/year higher growth than
growth in heated floorspace.
This will lead to an electric energy service level in 2050
of three times the 2000 level.
Electric appliances in service sector: 62% increase 2000-2010
following current trends, then 3%/year growth until 2020,
This will lead to an energy service level for electricity-using
equipment in 2050 of four times the 2000 level.
Industry: growth of 25% for processes demanding electricity
and 29% for processes demanding heat and fuels 2000 – 2010,
following statistics. After 2010 no growth
in physical production volume, i.e. no growth in drivers
that increased value in Latvian industry will come from improved
quality instead of increased quantity, following trends in
Western Europe. The
change of steel production in Liepaja from gas to electric
arc heating technology is included with a change of 4.4 PJ
of gas use
to 3.6 PJ of
electricity use in the steel sector before 2010 (assuming
and efficiency increase of 20% with the change).
Personal transport: the vision includes a 79% increase in
private car use 2000-2020, following high growth 2000 - 2008 and then
expected slower growth of 1.5%/year. Then we expect a stabilisation on
the 2020-level on 520 cars/1000 inhabitants
equal to Western European
(EU-15) level (year 2010 level in Latvia is about
470 cars/1000 inhabitants). Bus use is expected to remain stable until
current trends and then 10%/decade until 2040 and then stabilise
on a level
of 1.5 times the 2000-level. Train use is expected to grow
33% 2000 - 2015 following current trends and then increase
1%year reaching a level in 2050 88% higher than in 2000. This follows
a rapid decline of train use in the 90's when train use fell to 1/3 of
level in the early 1990's. As part of the increased train
are large opportunities
to improve use of existing train lines in Riga and many other
Freight transport: the vision includes a turnaround of the reduction
in rail freight in the last few years, so the level in 2030 is equal
to the level in 2005 that was 49% above the 2000-level. After 2030 is
expected a slow increase in freight trains to 152% of the 200 level in
2040 and later. Road freight fell since 2007, following a large, unsustainable
increase. The reduction is expected to continue until 2020, where the
level then would be 1% above the 2000-level. From 2020 the level is
expected to be stable.
transport is expected to remain unchanged.
An underlining assumption for this development is a generally stable
population in Latvia, with fluctuations below approx. 10%.
As a fraction of primary energy, renewable energy use is expected
to grow from the 2000-level of 32% to 34% in 2010, to 73%
in 2020, 90%
in 2030, 100% in 2040 and in 2050. For electricity the
is above the share of primary energy, starting with 48% in
2000, falling to 44% in 2010 and then increasing to 100% in 2020,
primarily because of biomass CHP. The power supply of Latvia will
continue to be interconnected with export of electricity from renewables
and import than might come from fossil fuel based power production
in other countries. In the scenario Latvia will no longer be a net
importer of electricity from 2015, assuming a rapid expansion of
The most important developments are in windpower and biomass
including important use of agricultural land for biomass plantations,
crops for biofuels and use of straw for heating and for combined
heat and power
(CHP) production. An important part of the straw is straw from
liquid biofuel production from rape-seed. The use of agricultural
energy plantations for solid biomass is expected to be 2200
km2 until 2020,
similar to 64% of the current area of non-used agricultural
land. Also increase use of solar is including in the vision,
increase in use of hydro-power, and geothermal is not included
as the temperatures
are low and the potential is uncertain.
Graph: Increase in renewable energy supply, following this
Vision. The reductions after 2020 is because of reducing primary energy
demands after 2020 with increase of energy efficiency and with use
heat via heat pumps. Ambient heat is not included in graph.
Graph: Change in primary energy supply, following this vision.
The decrease after 2020 is because assumptions of a less
and strong emphasis on energy efficiency.
Fossil fuel grows until 2010 to cover electricity production
and increasing heat and transport demands and then gradually be phased
out until 2040.
Graph: Fossil fuel supply Latvia according to Sustainable Energy
The energy conversion system will also have to be changed. The electric
grid is likely to increase in importance, because electricity will
also be used for transport, directly or via conversion to hydrogen.
The increase in electricity demand and the change to biomass power
will require construction of biomass CHP plants to produce 4 TWh (14
PJ) of electricity and 15 PJ heat. This will require construction of
800 – 1000 MW of biomass CHP plants until 2020.
The increasing dependence on intermittent electricity supply from windpower
and later solar PV can be managed with regulation on thermal and hydropower
plants; but it might be necessary to construct heat storages in the form
of hot water tanks to the CHP plants to decouple heat production and
heat demand. With such storages CHP plants can better follow electricity
demand. The intermittent electricity production from windpower and solar
PV is expected toi increase to 25% in 2020, 33% in 2030 and 45% in 2040
according to the vision. With 38% flexible electricity use (heat pumps
in district heating and battery vehicles) and international
electricity exchange, the fluctuating electricity supply will not be
a substantial problem
District heating will increase in importance with the vision, covering
more than 40% of household and 48% of service sector heat demand from
2030, an increase from today's 32% for household and 34% for
Gas networks are expected to have decreasing importance. They might play
a role for transportation of hydrogen or biogas, but probably not for
Graph: Development of electricity production and sources, following
Vision2050. The import/export line shows import when it is above the top
of the sources and export when it is below
Energy trade is expected to be much less than today, only a moderate
electricity exchange is expected. Net electricity import is expected
to be phased out until 2015.
If the vision
including efficiency assumptions are realised, there will be surplus
electricity in 2020 and later for export. The biomass export can
continue, and could expand after 2020, if the current trend of constant
low demand for agricultural land continue.
Graph: Phase out of CO2 Emissions from Energy
The above graph shows the CO2 emissions from energy
resulting from realisation of this vision. There will still be greenhouse
emissions from other
activities such as agriculture, including CO2 emissions.
with the Assumptions for Vision for Latvia (pdf file, 1
of the economy of
power supply options for Latvia / the Baltic Countries: Calculation (pdf
file, 110 kB, 2011)
A Strategy for Immediate Actions Until
2020: Strategy (pdf
Version of Vision
work on this paper and the sustainable energy vision for Latvia is
paid by funding received from the Nordic Council of Ministers and
Commission; but it expresses the findings and the views of the authors
and of INFORSE-Europe
and not necessarily of the European Commission. The European Commission
is not liable for use of the information.
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