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Estonia 100% Renewable Energy
Estonian Sustainable Energy Vision
The proposed development follows in general the same path as in the European vision, but given the large biomass and wind potentials, and the desire to reduce fossil fuel imports, the vision has a strong focus on actions to turn the current trend into reductions of fossil fuel use, also before 2020. This includes gradually replacing oil shale with biomass in the coming two decades. The scenario includes some growth in energy services for household, service and transport sectors, with all growth in transport in rail transport. The scenario includes a transition of the energy supply and demand with phase-out of fossil energy over a 25-30 year period, 2010 - 2040.
If this vision is turned into reality it will have a number of positive effects for Estonia. With a transition to domestic, renewable energy sources, Estonian will no longer be hurt directly by the energy prices increases of fossil fuels that many expect will come as a result of the dwindling resources of fossil fuels. With realisation of the vision, Estonia would also be in the front in the reduction of climate change, a position that can be very valuable in the future. Further, the emphasis on local resources will also benefit the economy with increased employment and a more positive trade balance. If Estonia is going to continue its development and growth, it has to be energy efficient.
show the positive effects in more details, an analysis is made of the
economic effects of the proposed transition until 2030, compared with
continued use of oil-shale and natural gas and compared with a scenario
with nuclear power.
See results below.
The Challenge of Reducing Heat Consumption
Graph: Development of energy efficiency expressed in development of specific energy demand compared with 2000 for one supply sector (CHP) and 4 end.use sectors.
An underlining assumption for this development is a generally stable population in Estonia.
to 100% renewable energy
The graphs show how the increased energy efficiency leads to reduced primary energy demands, but also to increased power consumption after 2020. when electric transport and heat pumps are introduced in the scenario.
The scenarios for transition to renewable energy of Estonia is described in details in this paper, March 2011 (pdf file, 900 kB)
Fossil, Nuclear, and Renewable Scenarios
Graph: Comparison of total costs in 2030 of three scenarios for Estonia. The costs include import and export of electricity, which is a cost for the fossil scenario (net import) and an income for the renewable and nuclear scenarios (net export). The CO2 costs are set to 18 €/ton.
Further explanations and comparisons, as well as the assumptions behind the modeling of the three scenarios are given in the this paper (pdf 180 kB), November 2011,
The work on this paper and the sustainable energy vision for Estonia is partly paid by funding received from the Nordic Council of Ministers, and the European Commission; but it expresses the findings and the views of the authors and of INFORSE-Europe and not necessarily of the funders and the funders are not liable for use of the information.