The International Network
for Sustainable Energy

EU Energy Policy:
- EU's Nuclear Dilemma?

INFORSE-Europe´s comments: Edited by Gunnar Boye Olesen, INFORSE-Europe

The EU Commission released a study called "DILEMMA STUDY: Study of the Contribution of Nuclear Power to the Reduction of Carbon Dioexide Emission from Electricity Generation" in the beginning fo 2000.

Among the findings of the study is that by 2025 nuclear power in EU will be reduced to 9% of the elelctricity supply in EU in a business as usual scenario, while it will be reduced to 1% in a low nuclear scenario, and remain unchanged at 23% in a high nuclear scenario. The study assumes that the nuclear power will be replaced will fossil fuels (1/3 coal and 2/3 gas), which, of course, will lead to increased CO2 emissions. This is seen as a dilemma of nuclear power versus CO2 emissions.

Unfortunately the development of renewable energy is only included on the level of the EU Commission's "Conventional Wisdom" scenario from its study "Energy in Europe to 2020" (from 1997). If just wind power development is changed from EU's "conventional wisdom" to the Windforce10/INFORSE-Europe scenario for windpower in EU, CO2 emissions will be reduced more than the reduction achieved by going from the business as usual to the high nuclear scenario.

Relative CO2 emissions of three scenarios from the "Dilemma" report, compared with ambitious windpower development (Windforce 10) combined with business as usual (4' column) and with the low nuclear scenario (5' column). The CO2 emissions are all relative to a "Kyoto goal" of CO2 emissions 8% below the 1990-level, which for the power sector is assumed to be 885 mill t of annual CO2 emissions.

The comparison shows that a progressive wind energy policy can give similar CO2 reductions than going from nuclear phase-out (low nuclear scenario) to maintaining nuclear power (high nuclear scenario).  Thus, it seems that the dilemma of nuclear power versus CO2 emissions only exist if a progressive development of renewable energy is not included as an option. On the other hand, neither the high nuclear power scenario nor the Windforce 10 alone will lead to sustainable levels of CO2 emmissions: at best the power sector will miss the Kyoto target with a few percent in 2010 with the above shown scenarios. A sustainable development must also include vigorous energy efficiency, other renewables than wind, and increased cogeneration of heat and electricity.

See more about how the Windforce10 scenario can be realised in Western Europe on this homepage.

See more about EU Policy at the Proceedings of the INFORSE-Europe Seminar 2001

See more about the anti-nuclear news under Nuclear Power